DAYA SAING SEKTORAL DAN PERUBAHAN STRUKTURAL DALAM MANUFAKTUR INDONESIA: PERSPEKTIF PERGESERAN PANGSA PASAR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59134/jimat.v1i1.808Keywords:
Shift-share analysis, manufacturing structural change, sectoral competitiveness, industrial transformation, subsector dynamicsAbstract
This study analyzes structural changes and sectoral competitiveness in Indonesian manufacturing from 2008 to 2022 using a shift-share analysis approach. The research aims to identify subsectors experiencing positive or negative structural shifts, measure the effect of industrial output on employment, compare output-employment patterns across subsectors with different technology and factor intensities, and provide evidence-based policy recommendations. Using secondary data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on value-added and employment across 24 two-digit KBLI subsectors, the study decomposes subsector growth into national share, industry mix, and competitive effects. Results indicate significant structural transformation characterized by rising shares of basic metals, chemicals, food, and motor vehicles, while traditional labor-intensive subsectors such as textiles, wood, and furniture experienced declining competitiveness. The food subsector demonstrated the most consistent strengthening, increasing its share from 16.23% to 21.97%, while basic metals recorded the highest cumulative growth of 919%. Shift-share classification identified four rising star subsectors (food, chemicals, basic metals, motor vehicles) with positive competitive effects, several stable subsectors, lagging subsectors (textiles, wood, furniture), and declining subsectors (printing and traditional industries). The COVID-19 crisis in 2020 disproportionately affected different subsectors, with food and chemicals showing greater resilience. The findings confirm that structural change in Indonesian manufacturing is uneven, with upgrading toward higher value-added industries occurring alongside persistent competitiveness gaps. Policy implications include targeted support for rising stars through investment incentives and downstreaming, as well as technology modernization and productivity enhancement for lagging subsectors to ensure inclusive and sustainable industrial transformation.
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