PENGARUH PRODUKSI INDUSTRI TERHADAP LAPANGAN KERJA DI SEKTOR MANUFAKTUR INDONESIA: ANALISIS REGRESI SEDERHANA

Abstract

This study aims to empirically analyze the effect of industrial output, proxied by value added in the manufacturing sector, on employment absorption in Indonesian manufacturing during the 2008–2022 period using a simple linear regression approach as a baseline analysis. Despite significant aggregate output growth, labor absorption has exhibited a more moderate trend, raising concerns about the emergence of partial jobless growth. The study employs secondary time series data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), aggregated nationally from large and medium manufacturing subsectors. Two model specifications are estimated using Ordinary Least Squares: a linear model to capture absolute effects and a log-linear model to interpret employment elasticity. The linear regression results reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship, with a coefficient of 0.741 indicating that each one billion rupiah increase in value added is associated with an increase of approximately 0.741 workers, and an R-squared of 0.870 demonstrating strong explanatory power. However, the log-linear model yields an employment-output elasticity coefficient of merely 0.25, signifying that a one percent increase in output corresponds to only a 0.25 percent rise in employment. These findings confirm that Indonesia's manufacturing growth is inelastic with respect to labor absorption and provide empirical evidence of partial jobless growth. Consequently, industrial strategies must pivot beyond output expansion toward enhancing labor-intensive, high-value-added subsectors to foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization.