POLA KETAHANAN DAN PEMULIHAN DI INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR INDONESIA: BUKTI SEKTORAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59134/jimat.v1i1.809Keywords:
manufacturing resilience, recovery patterns, sectoral analysis, economic crisis, COVID-19 impactAbstract
The 2020 economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had heterogeneous impacts across manufacturing subsectors, yet comprehensive mapping of resilience and recovery patterns at the sectoral level in Indonesia remains limited. This study aims to analyze the resilience and recovery patterns of Indonesian manufacturing subsectors over the period 2008–2022. A quantitative descriptive approach was employed using secondary time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), covering 24 subsectors based on two-digit KBLI codes. Variables analyzed included value added and labor absorption. The analysis consisted of five stages: pre-crisis trend analysis, shock impact measurement (contraction rate), post-crisis recovery assessment (recovery ratio), resilience index calculation, and subsector classification. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in resilience and recovery. Subsectors classified as highly resilient include food, chemicals, basic metals, and beverages, characterized by low contraction during the crisis and rapid recovery with recovery ratios exceeding 1.22. In contrast, vulnerable subsectors such as textiles, apparel, wood, and printing experienced deep contractions (ranging from -13% to -34%) and had not fully recovered by 2022, with recovery ratios between 0.67 and 0.94. Key differentiating factors include dependence on export markets versus stable domestic demand, as well as technological adoption capacity and supply chain flexibility. This sectoral mapping provides evidence-based insights for targeted policy interventions, including strengthening resilient subsectors as stability anchors and modernizing vulnerable ones.
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